There can be no doubt about it; the Trump Recession; #trumprecession is a freight train coming down the mountain without any brakes. The Trump Recession will be long, wide, deep and global unlike its predecessor, Jimmy Carter’s Russian Grain Embargo. We’ve seen this movie before and we know the plot well. The dominoes have already started falling.
Featured image courtesy of
Oh sure, I’ve heard city people with no concept of farming complain about the billions of tax payer dollars being doled out by the Trump administration to help farmers being shredded by the stupidity going on in the D.C. adult daycare center also called The White House. That money won’t make them whole and won’t stop grain and other foods from rotting. Please allow me to put the dollar amount in perspective for those who’ve only known city life.
Your house burned down along with all your possessions, here’s $20. Sorry it had to be you.
That’s quite honestly the level of “help” that gigantic sounding dollar amount is. It’s fake help. #fakehelp A Fox News soundbite to placate gullible masses.
You can’t just declare someone a farmer
An alarming number of farmers and farming operations will go out of business this year or shortly after this harvest. That government “help” was close to nothing. You can’t just shit out a new farmer. It takes a lot of knowledge and a massive amount of capital. Adding insult to injury the average age of a primary farm operator is pushing 60. Some say it is an improvement because in 2012 it was 65. Personally I believe it is a result of people falling off the end of the actuarial tables rather than a bunch of young people starting to farm.
Ah yes, the capital requirements. When the idiot in The White House Tweeted out his ass starting this trade war many of the larger banks severely tightened requirements, basically bailing on the Ag loan market, especially operating loans. This put a yet another whammy on farmers. Virtually no access to needed credit. A viciously wet spring delaying an in the case of many acres preventing planting. Global grain surplus from last year pushing prices down before Cadet Bone Spurs Tweeted out his ass and slammed the door shut on 40+% of agricultural exports.
Fox News
The theory floating around in the world is that 27 generations of brothers mating with sisters to produce the next generation of the family produced the Fox News audience. It’s really the only theory which makes sense given the pure fiction pushed out there as “news” and the complete gullibility of their audience. Only hearing the soundbite and never digging for any details. It’s kind of like Chinese and North Korean state run media, just pumping propaganda.
I bring the source of Fox News market up because it appears a great big pile of them work for BMO Harris Bank. In particular they work in upper management. When every other financial institution started cutting back on Agriculture loans soon after Agent Orange was forced into office by the Democrats choosing to rig a primary so they could run a treasonous criminal on their ticket. We ended up with Trump because of the corruption in the Democratic party.
BMO Harris
Yes, BMO Harris who still hasn’t lived down their 2018 financial felony actually believed the bullshit coming out of Trumps Tweets and pushed into the Ag market with gusto taking huge risks. It appears that regular tax payers will once again be forced to eat a bunch of bad loans just like they did because of Jamie Dimon’s mortgage fraud. Too soon to tell if this will put BMO completely under or not.
According to that link their “peak exposure” was $1.59 billion in 2018. According to this link they are just over $129 billion in size. Don’t just do basic math with those numbers. That’s assets mean your checking, savings, and retirement accounts not to mention mortgages, CDs and God knows what else. It’s not a pile of money they own. If they weren’t keeping all of these agricultural loans, i.e. bundling them into some kind of loan backed securities just like mortgages, then there is $1.59 billion of bad paper floating around out there, probably held by the mutual funds in your retirement account.
That’s correct. The Trump Recession is directly going to hit your retirement account just like the $1+trillion mortgage fraud did a few years ago. It’s not just some story on the news you can ignore. The Trump Recession is currently undermining the fundamentals of the stock market. Free government money has stock prices artificially high. There is a major crash coming.
Here is one spot to watch
Ag equipment sales were down over $900 million as of May 2019. Some manufacturers started cannibalizing sales with short term leases. Things got even worse by August. This agriculture debacle is also hitting India and Italy. Layoffs have already started at equipment manufacturers.
Merry Christmas, you’re being laid off.
Russian Grain Embargo
We’ve seen this movie before people. We know exactly how these dominoes fall because we watched it happen with the Russian Grain Embargo.
- A stupid and indefensible decision in Washington lops off ~ 40% of the export market.
- Surplus of grain on domestic market decimates prices.
- Farmers struggle with many going out of business.(Farm Aid) Part of that struggle is they stop buying equipment and pickup trucks.
- Farmers who have the option liquidate breeding stock to generate cash and slash expenses causing temporary drop in wholesale meat prices which may or may not get passed along to the consumer.
- Ag equipment manufacturers start laying off. At least one big name will go out of business creating thousands more unemployed who aren’t buying vehicles, paying down credit card debt/mortgages.
- Automobile manufacturers will first cut a backroom deal with the unions to go on strike in order to cease production and slow cash hemorrhage caused by building vehicles which will never sell.
- The massive number of unemployed put severe stress on government social programs and accelerate the downward economic spiral.
- New vehicle and retail sales drop even further. Multiple big name retailers shutter their doors creating even more unemployed.
- Criminal bank practices get exposed. Like the mortgage fraud Jamie Dimon and his friends committed, it was hidden as long as money flowed free. As soon as companies started off-shoring IT jobs and bringing in plane loads of H-1B workers, kicking U.S. citizens to the curb, the oil well went dry and the fraud became obvious with the bubble burst. Without the use of off-shore and visa labor the bubble could have been gradually deflated by regulators and some bankers would have actually went to prison.
- Meat prices spike. Chicken, pork, beef and even farm raised fish. Large portions (possibly too large) of the breeding stock as sold off to conserve cash. There are now fewer farmers producing fewer animals and even less dairy. Thanks to Trump it is quite possible we will lose ~50% of our dairy production. While you may not drink milk, cheese gets used in lots of things, notably pizza and deli sandwiches.
Just how far down the recession goes depends on how stable are token few remaining trading partners are. Oh wait. Dip-shit Trump has put tariffs on everybody. We don’t have any trading partners left, just hostile adversaries. You can’t get out of the Trump Recession like that.
This isn’t just one guy with a keyboard talking. High dollar consulting companies are coming to the same conclusion I did the day this complete imbecile started his trade war. Even if the trade war ended yesterday, hog production in China has shifted its feed mix away from soybeans. Soybeans would have to be massively cheaper before the pain and expense of switching back would make any kind of sense.
Jimmy Carter is the nicest, most honest guy ever elected to the office of the President. Sadly he was also the worst president we had.
George Senior tried very hard to replace Jimmy as the worst president we ever had.
Bill Clinton thoroughly dislodged Jimmy from “worst president in the history of the country.” The fraud was rampant within his administration. The fraud behind his “Information Superhighway” campaign chant gave us the DOT-BOMB Flame-out. His casual relationship with truth and reality put in place policies which guaranteed the mortgage fraud crisis would happen.
Little snot-nosed George deliberately committed massive fraud to prove “he could win daddy’s war!” As a result we are in a never ending war. American politics won’t let us glass the entire region with nukes and snot-nosed George never had an exit plan when he jumped in.
And now we have Trump. The worst president in the history of America looking to put America through a bankruptcy like his Taj Mahal. Let us also not forget his attempt to surrender to the Taliban on September 11, 2019 at Camp David. A “meeting getting us out of the war” which doesn’t involve the extermination of the Taliban cannot be spun as anything other than surrender.
There is no plan to get out of the Trump Recession because he completely denies the recession is happening. Even during a recession you can find one bright spot in an economy. That doesn’t meant the economy is doing good. Artificially propping the stock market up with free money can manufacture a bright spot, but it is a “bright spot” void of reality.
Little snot-nosed George didn’t have an exit plan when he was busy squandering the post-9/11 good will America had. Little snot-nosed George also basically defunded the search for Osama. So much for “We will not tire. Will not falter. Will not fail.” We either glass that region or we colonize it providing non-religion based democracy to the entire region. Those are the only two options which don’t involve surrender. Cadet Bone Spurs chose surrender.
America cannot and will not elect a worse president. If it does America will cease to exist as a country. His tax cut for the wealthy, paid for by increasing taxes on the poor and working class, has created nearly a trillion dollar deficit this year.
The trade war will end. After the election someone else will be in office. The Trump Recession, however, will go on for a very long time. It will take nearly a century for America to undo the inexcusable damage Trump has done to our country’s reputation around the world as well the global economy.
For more on Trump and how we got here read the How Did it Happen? post series.
