There is a lot of chatter in the business world where the talking heads keep pondering why the price of crude is so low. Easy, Russian oil. India and China, even some parts of the EU are feasting on $60/barrel or less crude oil from Russia. This price cap which was supposed to hinder Putin’s ability to make war is still funding the war just fine. No exceptions should have ever been granted to the Russian oil embargo, period! There most definitely shouldn’t have been this great big loop hole.

Crude Oil Cannot Get Above $80 When Everyone is Buying Russian Oil

It’s a simple fact people. Once the crude has been refined into gas, diesel, heating oil, etc. there is no way to tell where it came from. Unless you are willing to sink or seize tankers as they leave Russian ports, you cannot fix this. Part of me wonders if America wants to fix it. They’ve effectively capped crude oil prices no matter what OPEC does. I firmly believe OPEC could cut oil production in half right now, which would devastate its members, and it wouldn’t push oil above $80/barrel. There would just be a lot more tankers at Russian ports.

Time to Get Nasty

  • We need to ban import of anything made or transported with Russian oil. If Russian oil enters your country or the country of your fuel supplier, that’s it, can’t sell it here.
  • Put a $50,000 per head per year tax on Indian visa workers in America paid by both the visa holder and the company they are actually working at. The vast majority are subcontracted out via firms like Tata, Cap Gemini, etc. even though that is technically illegal. They just lease desks at the client site so it is “there company location.”
  • Plug for all time that desk leasing thing. Location must be a unique street address recognized by the Post Office and not a PO box.
  • Put a $100,000 per head per year tax on Indian employees of American firms working off-shore and a if they are leased out to firms in America that firm also pays the tax.

India doesn’t get to have its cake and eat it too. They don’t get to feast on taking all American IT jobs, channeling the money back to India, and feast on Russian oil. The tax is non-refundable non-prorated. Every year one drop of Russian oil enters the country as either crude or finished product, the tax is collected.

China is a Bit Different

Due to rampant technology thievery nobody with half a brain subcontracts IT work to China. The 100% product embargo, not tariff but full embargo will get their tension. The Chinese economy has been a paper dragon for years. They have even halted publishing youth unemployment numbers because Xi painted himself into a corner. Nothing can fix the financial situation of this communist dictatorship short of a war that kills off roughly half the country’s population. Xi’s policies don’t work for a China this size. An actual democracy that didn’t thieve technology of others with wanton abandon could fix the situation.

A complete product embargo which lasted for at least a month, preferably six months to a year, would cause a Chinese revolution. When you have a hundred million or more starving people with nothing left to lose, going to war doesn’t look so bad. Telling them to “eat bitterness” is not a term of endearment.

Even if it doesn’t end Xi, ending China’s consumption of Russian oil will save many Ukrainian lives. Ending Xi and communism would just be a bonus.

Summary

As long as Russia is allowed to pump all it wants because exemptions exist, global crude prices will be kept below $80/barrel and Russia will be able to fully fund the war in Ukraine. You need a global embargo. Either you seize every tanker or you do it this way.